Predictors of the utilisation of continuum of maternal health care services in India.

BACKGROUND: Utilisation of continuum of maternal health care services is crucial for a healthy pregnancy and childbirth and plays an important role in attaining Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to maternal and child health. This paper aims to assess the percentage of dropouts across various stages of utilization of continuum of maternal health services (CMHS) in India and also investigates the factors hindering the utilization of these services. METHODS: We used recent data from National Family Health Survey(NFHS) encompassing a total sample of 1,70,937 pregnant women for the period 2015-16. The percentage of women dropping out while seeking maternal health care is measured using descriptive statistics. While, the factors impeding the utilization of maternal health services is estimated using a Multinomial Logistic Regression Model, where dependent variable (CMHS) is defined as complete care, incomplete care and no care. RESULTS: Only17% of pregnant women availed the utilisation of complete care and 83% either did not seek any care or dropped after seeking one or two services. For instance, it is found that 79% of women who registered for antenatal care services (ANC) did not avail the same adequately. An empirical investigation of determinants of inadequate utilization of CMHS revealed that factors like individual characteristics, for instance- access to media (RRR: 2.06) and mother's education play (RRR: 3.61) a vital role in the uptake of CMHS. It is also found that the interaction between wealth index and place of residence plays a pivotal role in seeking complete care. Lastly, the results revealed that male participation (RRR: 2.69) and contacting multi-purpose worker (MPW) (RRR: 2.33) are also at play. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that the major determinants of utilisation of CMHS are access to media, mother's education, affordability barriers and male participation. Hence, policy recommendations should be oriented towards strengthening these dimensions and the utilisation of adequate ANC has to be considered as the need of the hour.

Horizontal inequity in the utilisation of Continuum of Maternal Health care Services (CMHS) in India: an investigation of ten years of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM).

BACKGROUND: Continuum of Maternal Health Care Services (CMHS) has garnered attention in recent times and reducing socio-economic disparity and geographical variations in its utilisation becomes crucial from an egalitarian perspective. In this study, we estimate inequity in the utilisation of CMHS in India between 2005 and 06 and 2015-16. METHODS: We used two rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - 2005-06 and 2015-16 encompassing a sample size of 34,560 and 178,857 pregnant women respectively. The magnitude of horizontal inequities (HI) in the utilisation of CMHS was captured by adopting the Erreygers Corrected Concentration indices method. Need-based standardisation was conducted to disentangle the variations in the utilisation of CMHS across different wealth quintiles and state groups.  Further, a decomposition analysis was undertaken to enumerate the contribution of legitimate and illegitimate factors towards health inequity. RESULTS: The study indicates that the pro-rich inequity in the utilisation of CMHS has increased by around 2 percentage points since the implementation of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), where illegitimate factors are dominant. Decomposition analysis reveals that the contribution of access related barriers plummeted in the considered period of time. The results also indicate that mother's education and access to media continue to remain major contributors of pro-rich inequity in India. Considering, regional variations, it is found that the percentage of pro-rich inequity in high focus group states increased by around 3% between 2005 and 06 and 2015-16. The performance of southern states of India is commendable. CONCLUSIONS: Our study concludes that there exists a pro-rich inequity in the utilisation of CMHS with marked variations across state boundaries. The pro-rich inequity in India has increased between 2005 and 06 and high focus group states suffered predominantly. Decentralisation of healthcare policies and  granting greater power to the states might lead to equitable distribution of CMHS.

Level of inequality and the role of governance indicators in the coverage of reproductive maternal and child healthcare services: Findings from India.

BACKGROUND: Diligent monitoring of inequalities in the coverage of essential reproductive, maternal, new-born and child health related (RMNCH) services becomes imperative to smoothen the journey towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this study, we aim to measure the magnitude of inequalities in the coverage of RMNCH services. We also made an attempt to divulge the relationship between the various themes of governance and RMNCH indices. METHODS: We used National Family Health Survey dataset (2015-16) and Public Affairs Index (PAI), 2016 for the analysis. Two summative indices, namely Composite Coverage Index (CCI) and Co-Coverage (Co-Cov) indicator were constructed to measure the RMNCH coverage. Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were employed to measure inequality in the distribution of coverage of RMNCH. In addition, we have used Spearman's rank correlation matrix to glean the association between governance indicator and coverage indices. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates an erratic distribution in the coverage of CCI and Co-Cov across wealth quintiles and state groups. We found that the distribution of RII values for Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal hovered around 1. Whereas, RII values for Haryana was 2.01 indicating maximum inequality across wealth quintiles. Furthermore, the essential interventions like adequate antenatal care services (ANC4) and skilled birth attendants (SBA) were the most inequitable interventions, while tetanus toxoid and Bacilli Calmette- Guerin (BCG) were least inequitable. The Spearman's rank correlation matrix demonstrated a strong and positive correlation between governance indicators and coverage indices.

Capacity-need gap in hospital resources for varying mitigation and containment strategies in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems. Therefore, it is imperative to assess health system preparedness in tandem with need projections for comprehensive outlook. OBJECTIVE: We attempted this study to forecast the need for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in need due to COVID-19. METHODS: We employed age-structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the need under varying scenarios. Projections for documented cases were made for varying degree of containment and mitigation strategies. Correspondingly, data on health resources was collated from various government records. Further, we computed daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild, severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of India. FINDINGS: Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in need during peak of epidemic. Also, model suggests that continuing strict lockdown measures in India after mid-May 2020 would have been ineffective in suppressing total infections significantly. Augmenting testing to 1,500,000 tests per day during projected peak (mid-September) under social-distancing measures and current test to positive rate of 9.7% would lead to more documented cases (60, 000, 000 to 90, 000, 000) culminating to surge in demand for hospital resources. A minimum allocation of 13x, 70x and 37x times more beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively would be required to commensurate with need under that scenario. However, if testing capacity is limited to 9,000,000 tests per day (current situation as of 19th August 2020) under continued social-distancing measures, documented cases would plummet significantly, still requiring 5x, 31x and 16x times the current allocated resources (beds for mild cases, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators respectively) to meet unmet need for COVID-19 treatment in India.